Monday, December 14, 2009

Markets to Open Up Today

Futures and the DAX are positive this morning suggesting an up open.  The market condition scans are showing a slightly positive bias, but the market bias indicators are neutral.  The Canadian market closed slightly down on Friday along with the Nasdaq.  In general, the markets tend to be positive prior to the Christmas holiday, and may sell off in January.  Gold is up today along with silver but oil is down.  Natural gas is up due to the severe winter weather hitting parts of Canada.

The Royal Bank sees Canadian GDP rising 2.6% next year.


Index
Change
% Change
Level
Phase
TSX
-40.64-0.35%11423.93Bullish
DOW
+65.67
+0.63%
10471.50
Bullish
SP500
+4.06
+0.37%
1106.41
Bullish
Nasdaq
-0.55-0.03%2190.31Bullish
Russell 2000
+4.99+0.84%600.37Bullish
NYSE
+20.62+0.29%7125.12Bullish



Friday, December 11, 2009

Markets to Open Mildly Up

Futures this morning are positive along with a slightly positive bias in the scans suggesting a positive market open.  The pattern recently has been for pro institutional traders to take profits on Friday's so watch for this at the end of the day.  The market bias indicators are showing no directional bias for today.


Index
Change
% Change
Level
Phase
TSX
+85.35
+0.75%
11464.57
Bullish
DOW
+68.78
+0.67%
10405.83
Bullish
SP500
+6.40
+0.58%
1102.35
Bullish
Nasdaq
+7.13
+0.33%
2190.86
Bullish
Russell 2000
-2.65
-0.44%
595.38
Bullish
NYSE
+36.88
+0.52%
7104.50
Bullish

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Trading Range Market Continues

The markets continue to oscillate back and forth with no strong directional pull.  This is typical trading range market action.  The futures are positive this morning and the DAX is slightly negative, indicating a mild up open.  The market bias indicators are slightly negative and the market condition scans are neutral with no strong directional bias.



Index
Change
%Change
Level
Phase
TSX
-120.70
-1.05%
11386.93
Bullish
DJIA
-104.14
-1.00%
10285.97
Bullish
Nasdaq
-16.62
-0.76%
2172.99
Bullish
SP 500
-11.31
-1.03%
1091.94
Bullish
Russell 2000
-5.86
-0.97%
597.70
Bullish
NYSE
-99.47
-1.39%
7056.26
Bullish
Source: Telechart

Short Term market outlook:
Bias: Scans showing a neutral bias
Energy: weak
Primary Trend: sideways
Market: Trading Range

Sector
Phase
Consumer Staples
Bullish
Healthcare
Warning
Technology
Bullish
Utilities
Warning
Energy
Bullish
Financials
Warning
Industrials
Bullish
Materials
Bullish
Consumer Discretionary
Bullish
Source: Telechart 

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

December Likely to be a Choppy Month for the Stock Markets

This morning, futures are pointing to a down open and the market bias indicators are neutral.  The market condition scans still indicated a trading range market, with no strong bias in either direction.  In such a market, trend following indicators such as moving averages, RSI, ADX, do not work that well.  In this type of market, oscillators give better confirming signals.  Also, because stocks can move rapidly up and then collapse, it is important to identify and take profits.

In terms of market news, the Bank of Canada will be making its interest rate decision this morning.  Japan has announced another stimulus package and German industrial production is down 1.8% in October.  Canadian housing starts were up last month. November passenger car sales hit a record high in China.

Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS.to) missed estimates on earnings, so we may see the Canadian financials suffer today.  Gold and silver are pulling back but remain above their 50 week moving averages.  These commodities may have one more speculative run.


Index
Change
%Change
Level
Phase
TSX



Bullish
DJIA
+1.21
+0.01%
10390.11
Bullish
Nasdaq
-4.74
-0.22%
2189.61
Bullish
SP 500
-2.73
-0.25%
1103.25
Bullish
Russell 2000
+0.77
+0.13%
603.56
Bullish
NYSE
-26.98
-0.38%
7155.73
Bullish

Source: Telechart

Short Term market outlook:
Bias: Scans showing a neutral bias
Energy: weak
Primary Trend: sideways
Market: Trading Range

Sector
Phase
Consumer Staples
Bullish
Healthcare
Warning
Technology
Bullish
Utilities
Warning
Energy
Bullish
Financials
Warning
Industrials
Bullish
Materials
Bullish
Consumer Discretionary
Bullish
Source: Telechart 

Monday, December 7, 2009

Futures Pointing to a Down Open

Futures are pointing to a down open this morning.  The market bias indicators are showing a bearish bias, suggesting a down day either today or in the next one to five days.  The markets remain in a sideways trend with low energy.  Seasonally many investors often anticipate a "Santa Claus" rally at this time.  However, the markets have not been following seasonal patterns so far this year.  Global economic news still have an impact on the markets as well.  I have written some addiitional posts at the following link: http://yovia.com/blogs/financialsense/ regarding the Dubai Debt as well as some comments on how retail stocks may perform this year.  You may find this of interest.

 The current market condition is very frustrating from both a swing and position trading perspective.  This is because the fundamentals are still weak and follow through on momentum price action is not consistent.  Good entry requires anticipating where a stock may go on "pre-buy" candlestick type signals.  Candlestick charts are helpful in getting a better read on the market sentiment for a stock, but takes considerable practice and review of a stock's chart to understand how the stock reacts to a particular candlestick pattern or signal.  This is where having a watchlist of stocks you follow comes in handy.

The better you understand how a stock moves the more efficient you will be in identifying buy or sell signals.  This is a useful skill for short term trading.  The challenge for many people is trying to decide which stocks to select for a watch list.  The stocks you choose will be dependent on your risk tolerance and how often you wish to trade, as well as your capital base.  As a starting point, you could build a watch list using the components of a popular index such as the Nasdaq 100 or the SP/TSX 60 for the Canadian market.  Once you have determined your criteria, you can than scan these for potential investment or trading opportunities.



Index
Change
%Change
Level
Phase
TSX
-125.75
-1.08%
11510.80
Bullish
DJIA
+22.75
+0.22%
10388.90
Bullish
Nasdaq
+21.21
+0.98%
2194.35
Bullish
SP 500
+6.06
+0.55%
1105.98
Bullish
Russell 2000
+14.01
+2.38%
602.79
Warning
NYSE
+25.66
+0.36%
7182.71
Bullish
Source: Telechart

Short Term market outlook:
Bias: Scans showing a neutral bias
Energy: weak
Primary Trend: sideways to down
Market: Trading Range

Sector
Phase
Consumer Staples
Bullish
Healthcare
Warning
Technology
Bullish
Utilities
Warning
Energy
Bullish
Financials
Warning
Industrials
Bullish
Materials
Bullish
Consumer Discretionary
Bullish
Source: Telechart 

Thursday, November 26, 2009

Markets Closed in the US for Thanksgiving

The US markets are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.  Futures and the DAX are negative, indicating a down open.  The US dollar has been declining further, causing the Canadian dollar and TSX to rise.  This morning we are seeing a pullback.

This is "Black Friday" in the US, which is considered one of the most important shopping days for the US.  Most retailers are engaging in deep discounting to encourage shoppers.

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Markets to Open Flat, Volumes Low

Thursday is the US Thanksgiving Holiday, so Happy Thanksgiving to any of our US readers!.  Since the markets have run up prior to the holiday, it would not be unexpected for them to sell-off after.  Therefore, it may be prudent to close out any open positions and be prepared to enjoy the weekend.

Futures this morning are positive along with the DAX, indicating a positive open.  The market condition scans are showing a slight bias to the upside and the market bias indicators are not showing any strong directional bias.  Therefore, this suggests a choppy market again, with weak follow through.

Earnings this morning are also mixed, so no strong catalyst for upward momentum here either.

The markets continue to react the falling US Dollar, which has been moving exactly opposite to the TSX.



Index
Change
%Change
Level
Phase
TSX
-84.39
-0.73%11539.63
Bullish
DJIA
-17.24
-0.16%
10433.71
Bullish
Nasdaq
-6.83
-0.31%2169.18
Bullish
SP 500
-0.59
-0.05%1105.65
Bullish
Russell 2000
-2.23
-0.37%592.58
Warning
NYSE
-16.07
-0.22%7170.26
Bullish
Source: Telechart

Short Term market outlook:
Bias: Scans showing a neutral bias
Energy: weak
Primary Trend: sideways to down
Market: Trading Range

Sector
Phase
Consumer Staples
Bullish
Healthcare
Warning
Technology
Bullish
Utilities
Warning
Energy
Bullish
Financials
Warning
Industrials
Bullish
Materials
Bullish
Consumer Discretionary
Bullish
Source: Telechart