Monday, April 6, 2009

Market Timing and Daily Update

Last week we had some very positive price action in the markets, however, volume did not continue to rise along with the price.  In addition, ADX on the daily chart, which is our trend indicator remained flat and below 25 for all the indices, suggesting this was still only a bear market swing to resistance and not yet a change in direction.  So we remain in a bottoming market.  Gold is entering a seasonally weak period and so far is acting accordingly as the price of gold as tracked by GLD continues to pullback.  Silver is also pulling back and crude oil remains in a tight range.  We are also entering earnings season for the 1st quarter and markets are likely to move sideways to down as investors and traders wait to hear results.   

 As of this writing, futures are negative and the DAX is negative, indicating a negative open.    The market condition scans remain neutral, giving no indication on short term market direction.    The institutional and RSI scans were strong again on Friday, indicating institutions are starting to accumulate slowly.  This is a positive sign, indicating that we may be close to completing the market bottoming.  The market bias indicators continue to show a negative bias indicating we should continue to see a correction in the next one to five days.

Index

Change

%Change

Level

Phase

TSX

-7.38

-0.08%

9065.76

Recovery

DJIA

+39.51

+0.50%

8017.59

Recovery

Nasdaq

+19.24

+1.20%

1621.87

Recovery

SP 500

+8.12

+0.97%

842.50

Recovery

Russell 2000

+5.94

+1.32%

456.13

Recovery

NYSE

+51.65

+0.98%

5318.75

Recovery

Source: Telechart

Short Term market outlook:

Bias: Scans showing a neutral bias

Energy: moderate

 Primary Trend: Remains down to sideways

Sector

Phase

Consumer Staples

Bearish

Healthcare

Bearish

Technology

Recovery

Utilities

Bearish

Energy

Bearish

Financials

Recovery

Industrials

Bearish

Materials

Recovery

Consumer Discretionary

Recovery

Source: Telechart 

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